Summary:
China’s corn trade landscape is undergoing a historic transformation, marked by a 97% year-on-year collapse in imports, a near halt in U.S. exports, and logistical bottlenecks in alternative sourcing from Brazil. Exports are also faltering due to high domestic prices and fierce international competition, creating a dual-pressure scenario of “contracted imports, weakened exports.” This analysis dissects the dynamics through four SEO-optimized lenses: policy shocks, international supply chains, price transmission, and regional substitution.
Tariff Policies Reshape Import Landscape: U.S. Share Plummets, Brazil Struggles to Fill Gaps
U.S. Corn Exports to China Virtually Halted by Tariff Barriers
A steep tariff hike from 84% to 125% on U.S. corn, effective April 12, 2025—on top of a 15% tariff imposed March 10—has pushed landed costs above 3,000 RMB/ton, 25% higher than domestic spot prices. This policy has decimated U.S. exports, which plummeted 98% year-on-year to just 32,700 tons in January-February 2025. The U.S., which accounted for 15% of China’s corn imports in 2024, now holds a near-zero market share in 2025, severing a decades-long supply channel.
Brazil Faces Price Inversion and Logistical Hurdles
Despite being China’s top corn supplier (47% of imports in 2024), Brazil’s January-February 2025 shipments dropped 97% year-on-year, driven by:
· Price Inversion: Brazil’s FOB price of 2,450 RMB/ton, plus shipping and tariffs, results in a landed cost of 2,700 RMB/ton—higher than China’s port prices (2,460 RMB/ton).
· Logistical Bottlenecks: Port strikes and rail shortages limited Brazil’s April exports to 48,000 tons (37% year-on-year decline), while delayed second-season corn harvesting until May exacerbates short-term supply tightness.
Emerging Suppliers Fail to Bridge the Gap
New sources like South Africa and Argentina face constraints:
· South Africa: Drought reduced 2025 output by 10%, and its 45-day shipping周期 makes it unsuitable for urgent needs, despite 1.3 million tons exported to China in 2024.
· Argentina: Projected 2024/25 output of 49 million tons (down 2.6 million tons year-on-year), with exports prioritizing traditional markets like Brazil and Vietnam, leaving limited volumes for China.
Import Collapse: Just 180,000 Tons in Jan-Feb, Heading for Five-Year Low
Historic Import Slump
China imported only 180,000 tons of corn in January-February 2025, a 97% year-on-year drop—far below 6 million tons in 2024 and 12 million tons in 2023. Key drivers include:
· Ample Domestic Stocks: A record 2024 harvest of 295 million tons (+2.1% year-on-year) exceeding 100 million tons, sufficient to cover four months of consumption.
· Shrinking Demand: Falling pig prices (nine consecutive weeks of decline) have lengthened feed mill inventory cycles to 1-2 months, cutting corn demand for feed by 10% year-on-year.
Tariff Rate Quota Underutilization
With a 2025 tariff rate quota (TRQ) of 7.2 million tons (4.32 million tons for state-traded enterprises), actual January-February imports utilized just 2.5% of the quota. The National Grain and Oils Information Center has revised 2024/25 imports down to 7 million tons—set to be the lowest in five years and potentially dropping below 5 million tons.
Export Weakness: 22.3% YoY Decline Amid Price Disadvantage
Shrinking Export Volumes
China exported 159,000 tons of corn in January-February 2025, a 22.3% year-on-year decline, due to:
· Domestic Price Premium: At 2,460 RMB/ton in Guangdong’s Shekou Port, Chinese corn is 300-500 RMB/ton more expensive than exports from Vietnam and India, eroding competitiveness.
· Rising International Competition: Ukraine, via the Black Sea Grain Initiative, exported 280,000 tons to Southeast Asia in January-February 2025, capturing market share from China.
Overreliance on Narrow Markets
South Korea and Cameroon account for over 80% of China’s corn exports, but South Korea’s cheaper U.S. imports (2,300 RMB/ton landed cost with tariffs) have slashed Chinese exports to the country by 35% year-on-year.
International Supply Chain Realignment: From “U.S.-Brazil Duopoly” to Diversified Trials
South American Supply Volatility
· Brazil: Projected 2024/25 output of 124.7 million tons, but expanding ethanol production may reduce exports to 34 million tons—their lowest in four years.
· Argentina: Drought-driven 5% output decline to 49 million tons in 2024/25, with domestic feed demand prioritized over exports to China.
Limited Black Sea Potential
Ukraine’s FOB price of ~2,100 RMB/ton offers a price advantage, but:
· Port Constraints: Odessa Port handles just 12,000 tons/day, well below pre-war levels.
· High Transportation Costs: $45/ton freight via the Turkish Straits, $15 more than from Brazil.
Corporate Overseas Expansion
COFCO is building a 5-million-ton corn storage facility in Brazil (scheduled for 2026) and signing long-term agreements with Argentina to secure 500,000 tons in 2025, accelerating supply chain diversification.
Price Transmission and Policy Interventions
Import Costs Drive Domestic Price Surges
Rising global prices—U.S. corn futures exceeding 440 cents/bu, Brazil’s FOB up 12% year-on-year—have pushed Dalian corn futures above 2,300 RMB/ton, fueled by market fears of long-term supply tightness despite low current imports.
Policy Tools to Curb Volatility
· Reserve Releases: Sinograin auctioned 35,000 tons of corn on April 16 with a 95% clearance rate, priced at 2,470-2,475 RMB/ton, to ease supply in North China.
· TRQ Adjustments: The 2025 TRQ remains at 7.2 million tons, but the state-traded share is reduced from 60% to 50%, allowing more private-sector participation in imports.
Future Outlook: Tight Balances and Three Critical Variables
Upside Risks
· Global Production Shortfalls: Argentina’s 8% yield decline and potential Brazilian droughts could push the global stock-to-use ratio below 28%—threatening food security thresholds.
· Geopolitical Escalation: Escalating U.S.-China trade tensions to soybeans/wheat could trigger a broader global agricultural supply chain reconfiguration.
Downside Pressures
· Domestic Bumper Harvest: China’s 2025 planting area stability (via Central No.1 Document) may lift output to 298 million tons, narrowing the supply-demand gap.
· Substitute Inflows: Sorghum/barley imports up 14% year-on-year are displacing corn in feed formulations.
Key Monitoring Points
· May Reserve Auction: Sinograin’s planned 3-million-ton reserve rotation could ease market jitters if clearance exceeds 80%.
· Brazilian Harvest Recovery: A rebound in May’s second-season corn exports to 3 million tons/month could reverse import declines.
Data Sources:
CCM General Administration of Customs
More information can be found at CCM corn products China Monthly Report.
About CCM:
CCM is the leading market intelligence provider for China’s agriculture, chemicals, food & feed and life science markets. Founded in 2001, CCM offers a range of content solutions, from price and trade analysis to industry newsletters and customized market research reports. CCM is a brand of Kcomber Inc.
For more information about CCM, please visit www.cnchemicals.com or get in touch with us directly by emailing econtact@cnchemicals.com or calling +86-20-37616606.